[VRSK – Verisk] High Quality Cash Flow, Limited Reinvestment Opportunities

When evaluating the competitive advantage of a data-based analytics business, three important questions come to mind: 1) Is the data proprietary? 2) Are the insights from the data critical? and 3) Does the data fuel a product feedback loop? Verisk began its operations in 1971 as Insurance Services Offices (ISO), a non-profit enterprise started by P&C […]

[SHW – Sherwin-Williams] Valuation Looks Stretched

If you’re unfamiliar with the architectural coatings sector, you might be surprised to know that selling paint can be a good business…and no one sells it more profitably in North America than SHW, whose market share gains have come from both the multi-decade shift from “Do-It-Yourself” (DIY) to professional paint jobs and a leading position […]

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[CBG – CBRE Group] Expensive on Normalized Earnings

CBG is a fine company but to claim that it is reasonably cycle-resilient post-GWS acquisition is an exaggeration.  Deriving 70% of fee revenue from contractual and purportedly recurring sources will not meaningfully cushion profits in the event of a commercial real estate swoon. From its roots as a regional commercial real estate broker founded in the aftermath of the 1906 […]

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[GNRC – Generac] Value Come, Value Go

I finally got around to looking at GNRC this past week. Given the stock’s ostensibly low earnings multiple and a share price that has gotten hammered over the last several years on what appears to be mostly cyclical reasons, I wanted to like the company but couldn’t get there.  Disclosure is spotty, management seems slippery, […]

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[ESRX – Express Scripts] Post-ANTM Thoughts

(2,410 words) [ESRX] After more than a year of acrimonious public squabbling, it appears ANTM will be terminating its relationship with ESRX: The Company’s current long-term PBM contract with Anthem expires on December 31, 2019, and Anthem is currently engaged in a Request for Proposal (RFP) process for a PBM service provider following the end of its […]

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Quick Blurbs [Alliance Data, American Express, Bank of America, Interactive Brokers, CarMax, Supervalu]

[IBKR – Interactive Brokers] Partly due to an exceptionally low volatility trading environment, which has made it difficult to earn profits and which Petterfy says may continue “indefinitely,” the company is winding down its options market making operations. While the company will use the excess capital from market making to further support its brokerage operations, the […]
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[GAIA – Gaia] Interesting Company, Less Interesting Price

The ~$100mn float may render this jockey bet too illiquid for some of you hedge fund MoUs.  GAIA is a speculative enterprise with a questionable business moat run and 38%-owned by competent CEO/ascetic, Jirka Rysavy, who after spending years building and then paring away various businesses inside (as it is now called) GAIA, is left steering […]

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[LYV – Live Nation Entertainment] Some of It’s Magic, Some of It’s Tragic

Live Nation’s business model is unique, contextually rich, and complicated.  While I think this is a decent business – to see this you have to consider all its parts, some of which are mediocre on a standalone basis, as an interlocking whole – I don’t think the purported “platform” is as interesting as I initially […]

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